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Jun 11, 2022Liked by Michael Lange

If this was RCV (and if I was in this district) I'd probably go Niou > Rivera > Jones > de Blasio > Holtzman > Simon > Goldman

It is worrying to me that the three progressives might split their votes roughly evenly allowing someone else to win. In the absence of federal RCV, I can't believe I'm saying this but I'd rather they make a backroom deal and decide which two among them should withdraw. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity and obviously, 30 years of Jones is still much preferable to 30 years of Goldman.

[Note: For me an important strike against Goldman is that, in a slightly different timeline, he likely would've been the institutional candidate for state attorney-general this year, whom Zephyr Teachout would've needed to overcome.]

de Blasio would be okay in my book, for the same reason you cited: given what we know about his ideology, he could be an effective congressman regardless of his performance as mayor. A point in favor for him is that he's a big enough name that he could regularly draw major headlines for the progressive cause, like Sanders and AOC can. [de Blasio's performance in the presidential debates in 2019 wasn't terrible; his campaign floundered because he was way overshadowed by Sanders and Warren, who were more relevant nationally and had much cleaner records.] However, I do wonder if he really intends to stay in the House for long, going from mayor of the largest city to 1 of 435 (and 1 of many even just in the progressive caucus).

In any case, great analysis! I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

[Oh and by the way, the hypothetical in which Holtzman is the class III senator from 1981 to the present day is quite amusing. It mirrors the alternate timeline stemming from the *other* noted three-way Senate election of the previous century --- namely, the 1970 election in which Democratic Rep. Richard Ottinger and liberal Republican appointed incumbent Sen. Charles Goodell (father of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell) both lost to James L. Buckley, who ran on the Conservative line. Buckley outpolled Ottinger by less than 2%, while Goodell received 24% of the vote, much of which would have gone to Ottinger. Had Ottinger won in 1970, he might have continued in that seat for a long time, potentially all the way to the present if he so chose; he is currently living, at age 93.]

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Instead of focusing on the the mutually destructive Senate race of 1992 - you didn't mention that Holtzman graciously deferred to the then more high profile Ferraro in the 1986 Senate match, who unexpectedly didn't take the plunge due to alleged ethics concerns (is it reasonable to have expected Holtzman to yield a second time?) -- how about Holtzman's groundbreaking authorship of the 1980 refugee act which admitted hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese into this country; or her reform of jury selection procedures to end built-in prejudices against minority defenders as Brooklyn DA? In this century, Holtzman has been continually engaged as an author, columnist, and television commentator -- she is not coming out of retirement. She pulled off the AOC feet 40 years ago (who has paid homage to her predecessor and should endorse her), but is still younger than Pelosi. Any progressive anywhere would be honored to be able to vote for a candidate of Holtzman's stature. Instead I'm just envious that you have the opportunity.

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Instead of focusing on the the mutually destructive Senate race of 1992 - you didn't mention that Holtzman graciously deferred to the then more high profile Ferraro in the 1986 Senate match, who unexpectedly didn't take the plunge due to alleged ethics concerns (is it reasonable to have expected Holtzman to yield a second time?) -- how about Holtzman's groundbreaking authorship of the 1980 refugee act which admitted hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese into this country; or her reform of jury selection procedures to end built-in prejudices against minority defenders as Brooklyn DA? In this century, Holtzman has been continually engaged as an author, columnist, and television commentator -- she is not coming out of retirement. She pulled off the AOC feet 40 years ago (who has paid homage to her predecessor and should endorse her), but is still younger than Pelosi. Any progressive anywhere would be honored to be able to vote for a candidate of Holtzman's stature. Instead I'm just envious that you have the opportunity.

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Jo Anne Simon is more than a dark horse and a smart bettor would go all in on her winning. She has by far the most legislative experience of all the named candidates and has the most proven track record of enacting common sense legislation that address the unique interests of her constituents. She is someone who is able to identify a problem, coordinate with interested parties, and put forth legislation that actually has a chance of being enacted. While she certainly possesses tremendous progressive credentials, she isn’t a closed-minded, all or nothing ideologue in the mold of many young politicians who have taken up the progressive mantle in recent years. She knows what it takes to work behind the scenes as a legislator, she knows how to negotiate to bring results for her constituents without compromising on her morals, and she has the local connections in NY-10 to build the kinds of support coalitions that are needed to get meaningful legislation advanced through the hyper-partisan gridlock plaguing DC. This isn’t a seat we can risk giving to some young, relatively inexperienced City Councilwoman who will need months of learning on the job before she can accomplish anything of note. We also don’t need someone who is going to go down to DC and only add to the tribal partisanship that has Congress starkly divided and unable to reach any consensus on even the most pressing issues of our time. We also don’t need the most unpopular and least productive Mayor in New York City’s history taking his incompetence and outsized ego to a position that requires humility, attentiveness, and a deep understanding of diverse issues affecting the district. Being a member of the United States House of Representatives is about taking the local issues impacting your constituents and advocating on their behalf amongst a large group of elected officials that all have different interests and backgrounds influencing their actions. Jo Anne Simon has more knowledge of these issues and the established willingness and ability to act on them for the benefit of her constituents more so than any other candidate vying for the nomination. People are tiring of the partisan grandstanding and complete unwillingness to compromise that most young progressives have used in their official capacities as elected officials. They aren’t focused on getting something good done for the benefit of their constituents as much as they are with maintaining the progressive bonafides and making sure they get tweetable sound bites complaining about something or someone. The policies they have produced have fallen woefully short of meeting the high standards progressives had set for them and their unwillingness to even tweak the most dangerous and deadly policies they’ve ushered is something voters are no longer willing to tolerate. Progressive primary challengers in the mold of AOC have failed miserably throughout the country this primary season and have lost to some of the most vulnerable incumbents in public office today. Even those not on ballots have been voted out of office using the rarely used recall mechanisms that New York doesn’t yet allow for. If they could, you can rest assured there would be a whole slew of progressive officials facing recall votes across the state. Don’t think for a second that voters will make the same mistake they did in the past. They are going to vote for the most pragmatic, common sense candidate on the ballot and the one who has the proven track record to bring to Congress and produce results. That is Jo Anne Simon.

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